August 2008 Archives
Rio Tinto - another trading day, another loss! This time stop-lossed out for approx £200 loss. Still think this share is on the verge of upward movement just not sure which day. Would not re-purchase though as think supply is still outstripping demand as it were.
I need to re-examine my stock-selection criteria.
I need to re-examine my stock-selection criteria.
Commercial Group Properties - a bad day has had to stop loss out of the trade due to a 6.11% drop on the day.
Compounded by the fact that the other trade Aquarius Platinum made 8.22% on the day and would have realised me about £500.
One option in future is to purchase both stocks but divide by day capital - however had I done that here I would have then profited by £250 which would have been reduced to £50 due to stop loss of other stock. Better to select the correct stock to begin with.
Aquarius Platinum is in a more bullish sector and perhaps I should have considered that instead.
Rio Tinto- buy as meets all criteria bar one and due to post big profits. In a bullish sector, Mining. One different criteria is that activity and cost both went up together but cost ahead of activity and a gap. Suggests non-UK interest too.
Compounded by the fact that the other trade Aquarius Platinum made 8.22% on the day and would have realised me about £500.
One option in future is to purchase both stocks but divide by day capital - however had I done that here I would have then profited by £250 which would have been reduced to £50 due to stop loss of other stock. Better to select the correct stock to begin with.
Aquarius Platinum is in a more bullish sector and perhaps I should have considered that instead.
Rio Tinto- buy as meets all criteria bar one and due to post big profits. In a bullish sector, Mining. One different criteria is that activity and cost both went up together but cost ahead of activity and a gap. Suggests non-UK interest too.
Toledo Mining - price closed as opened with only a ha'penny rise. A day with no profit and indeed slight loss due to commission.
Though my share picks aren't proving to be disasters in respect of price drops they are all netting very little income. I need to either apply my selections more rigorously and/or refine my parameters.
I am wondering if commencing searching via highest daily price rise is the best option? If not though, what?
Aquarius Platinum - meets criteria other than quite volatile. Mining is a bullish sector though. Concerns about Zimbabwe's political rather than economic involvement in companies investing and mining in their country. UBS raised assessment from Neutral to Buy. Watch.
Commercial Group Properties PLC - meets a lot of criteria - no News items though so not sure about driver. Buy due to volume change in relation to price rise.
Though my share picks aren't proving to be disasters in respect of price drops they are all netting very little income. I need to either apply my selections more rigorously and/or refine my parameters.
I am wondering if commencing searching via highest daily price rise is the best option? If not though, what?
Aquarius Platinum - meets criteria other than quite volatile. Mining is a bullish sector though. Concerns about Zimbabwe's political rather than economic involvement in companies investing and mining in their country. UBS raised assessment from Neutral to Buy. Watch.
Commercial Group Properties PLC - meets a lot of criteria - no News items though so not sure about driver. Buy due to volume change in relation to price rise.
Currently I am testing stocks 'dipped' in for the day then withdrawn with aim of 3% at least profit.
I wonder though if I should see how these shares go on up to 4 days after? To see if they achieve 6% after 2 days, 9% after 3 and 12% after 4?
Worth a look. Do this over weekend by referring to Microsoft Money for sold stocks and ShareScope for price movements since sale.
Nevertheless my purchase assessments are based on one day movements but it would be interesting if the triggers pick up upward movement beyond the next 24 hours - no reason why not as sometimes next day will lose upward momentum due to volatility - but over the next 2/3 days that may be ironed out. Issue though is how much money they would realize per day irrespective of whether they last 2/3 days. An advantage of shares staying longer is less commission over the trading period. And less research and work for me :)
I wonder though if I should see how these shares go on up to 4 days after? To see if they achieve 6% after 2 days, 9% after 3 and 12% after 4?
Worth a look. Do this over weekend by referring to Microsoft Money for sold stocks and ShareScope for price movements since sale.
Nevertheless my purchase assessments are based on one day movements but it would be interesting if the triggers pick up upward movement beyond the next 24 hours - no reason why not as sometimes next day will lose upward momentum due to volatility - but over the next 2/3 days that may be ironed out. Issue though is how much money they would realize per day irrespective of whether they last 2/3 days. An advantage of shares staying longer is less commission over the trading period. And less research and work for me :)
SDL PLC - meets sufficient criteria to justify a buy. This share finished down on the day by 10p - clearly my assessment or indicators were at fault here and need to be analysed - though not dismissed as some losses are to be expected as there can never be guarantees. However on the day I would have realised a very small profit - £17.27 - again not enough to live on but okay for part-time - would make an extra £480 p/m - good extra capital but not a way to sustain a living. However the stock level I am using is based on paper trading full-time - if part-time I would have less capital to play with and these tiny percentages would be more succeptable to being wiped out my commission and other fee costs. Additionally despite losing 10 points I would not have triggered a stop loss - but would I have trigged a sell unless I had been watching the price movement occur. This share purchase needs to be as said analysed further.
Steppe Cement - this did make a profit but £31.34 so I am pleased it was another successful stock pick but the profit level on this could not sustain my livelihood. Though for part-time trading it would be okay! Nevertheless as this is toward full-time trading I need to explore further - trade as if my livelihood whether in fact I am doing so part-time or paper-trading.
I need therefore not just to be able to pick stocks with upward movement potential but of at least 3% - need to study whether this 1.06% increase could have been predicted.
Toledo Mining - meets all criteria, in bullish sector in a part of the world, the Philippines, that could attract new Chinese money.
Steppe Cement - this did make a profit but £31.34 so I am pleased it was another successful stock pick but the profit level on this could not sustain my livelihood. Though for part-time trading it would be okay! Nevertheless as this is toward full-time trading I need to explore further - trade as if my livelihood whether in fact I am doing so part-time or paper-trading.
I need therefore not just to be able to pick stocks with upward movement potential but of at least 3% - need to study whether this 1.06% increase could have been predicted.
Toledo Mining - meets all criteria, in bullish sector in a part of the world, the Philippines, that could attract new Chinese money.
Currently I am only allocating myself about 30 minutes per day to pick-stocks. Clearly this is a time-slot which I would make the best part of my working day should I ever decide to go full-time, however as I already hold down a full-time job I cannot give it the full-time commitment at this stage.
Therefore if some days I am not able to pick what I judge to be a profitable next-day stock I should not be too surprised when I am giving myself in effect one-sixteenth of the time I would otherwise spend if full-time.
The main thing at this stage is to build up a series of successful stock picks over the rest of 2008.
Therefore if some days I am not able to pick what I judge to be a profitable next-day stock I should not be too surprised when I am giving myself in effect one-sixteenth of the time I would otherwise spend if full-time.
The main thing at this stage is to build up a series of successful stock picks over the rest of 2008.
UNITE Group PLC - noted significant decline in volume yet price rise - suggest most of activity was buying - but equally declining activity could signify declining interest.
Decision is to watch and buy Steppe Cement though as said not fully confident in this either but a chance to test an indicator - which is the luxury of paper trading.
Decision is to watch and buy Steppe Cement though as said not fully confident in this either but a chance to test an indicator - which is the luxury of paper trading.
JKX Oil & Gas PLC - this share is trending up along with increased activity and stochastic suggesting a few more trading days at least with the buyers upper hand. Tempted to buy - certainly will watch. Also in a vigorous sector Oil & Gas alongside a decline in Oil commodity value. However does have a small venture in Georgia and need to be mindful of the conflict with Russia escalating which could have a negative impact. Think it would be wiser to leave this share alone currently with a feeling the wider market may have similar sentiments - certainly would either sell or hold rather than buy.
Steppe Cement Ltd - I have a feeling to buy this however not quite clear what is driving its price currently. Will wait further stock selections Sunday and if no buys are found I think I will go with this one to test the indicators I am using in the face of any seeming driving fundamentals.
Steppe Cement Ltd - I have a feeling to buy this however not quite clear what is driving its price currently. Will wait further stock selections Sunday and if no buys are found I think I will go with this one to test the indicators I am using in the face of any seeming driving fundamentals.
Some days I may not identify any stocks to buy - should I reduce my threshold of requirements and in turn increase the risk to undertake the purchase - as said nothing traded, nothing gained - but equally nothing traded, nothing lost - and perhaps some trading days I should take the day off as it were. Use it for researching for the next trading day.
I think changing requirements for the sake of a trade is not wise as it loses the discipline of picking stocks that meet specific criteria - likewise looking for trades of greater profits to make good losses or non-trading days is to be avoided.
In these Bearish times better to wait out the day for the next trading opportunity.
I think changing requirements for the sake of a trade is not wise as it loses the discipline of picking stocks that meet specific criteria - likewise looking for trades of greater profits to make good losses or non-trading days is to be avoided.
In these Bearish times better to wait out the day for the next trading opportunity.
Smallbone meets a number of criteria including sector trending up. It provides services to the luxury end of the consumer market - are they then recession proof? Feeling is I should watch rather than buy.
Andes Energia meets many criteria but still I feel a watch due to recent increase in activity increasing price which is not always a guarantee of continued ascent. Some recent news activity but a Peruvian mine and in Spanish!
EcoSecurities activity declined again along with a price rise but wonder if could get gapped out over the weekend - on the other hand could continue to trend through the top of a Bollinger curve.
I don't feel confident about any purchases today but will do further research over the coming weekend.
Andes Energia meets many criteria but still I feel a watch due to recent increase in activity increasing price which is not always a guarantee of continued ascent. Some recent news activity but a Peruvian mine and in Spanish!
EcoSecurities activity declined again along with a price rise but wonder if could get gapped out over the weekend - on the other hand could continue to trend through the top of a Bollinger curve.
I don't feel confident about any purchases today but will do further research over the coming weekend.
This share finished down on the day though it did reach a high above the previous day's closing price and would have realised a profit for me of £40.58 - but this is not even 1% take on the day.
Indeed with Stop loss active I may have triggered a sale for a lower price and made a loss.
This also establishes that one of the indicators I was referring to is not entirely reliable - though it is not to be dismissed at such an early stage - it is 50/50 after two and needs to be tested over 20 days.
This is particularly galling because the other shortlisted share EcoSecurities Group PLC would have made me a profit of £423.73 finishing the day 7.63% up on the previous trading day. This though does mean that this indicator has a 2/3 success rate. Is it golden? Time as ever will tell!
Indeed with Stop loss active I may have triggered a sale for a lower price and made a loss.
This also establishes that one of the indicators I was referring to is not entirely reliable - though it is not to be dismissed at such an early stage - it is 50/50 after two and needs to be tested over 20 days.
This is particularly galling because the other shortlisted share EcoSecurities Group PLC would have made me a profit of £423.73 finishing the day 7.63% up on the previous trading day. This though does mean that this indicator has a 2/3 success rate. Is it golden? Time as ever will tell!
This was the other share that I may have bought but having already bought the aforementioned Regal Petroleum I have added this to my watchlist.
This company operates successfully in the Carbon Footprint industry which is most certainly a key industry for the 21st Century.
This company operates successfully in the Carbon Footprint industry which is most certainly a key industry for the 21st Century.
Despite there being a number of indicators contra to my requirements I also noted recent price increases despite decreased volumes. Coupled with director buy and selling I decided to buy.
The overall sector was trending up too.
I would have bought at £1.51 and sold at £1.60 giving me a profit of £361.57 - my first stock profit and in excess of my 3% requirement - nearer 5%.
A good day :)
This trend of volume decrease price increase was repeated so I decided to re-purchase the stock at £1.54. In retrospect this might have been hasty because I also noted another share with buy potential which may realise a greater profit.
The overall sector was trending up too.
I would have bought at £1.51 and sold at £1.60 giving me a profit of £361.57 - my first stock profit and in excess of my 3% requirement - nearer 5%.
A good day :)
This trend of volume decrease price increase was repeated so I decided to re-purchase the stock at £1.54. In retrospect this might have been hasty because I also noted another share with buy potential which may realise a greater profit.
I considered there could be imminent profit in this share with expansion of the company announced but nothing to indicate an immediate buy. I decided to watch.
The next trading day saw a high price which would have netted 3% though closing price finished lower than previous trading day.
The next trading day saw a high price which would have netted 3% though closing price finished lower than previous trading day.
An Oil and Gas producer and thus in a bullish sector.
I noted increased buying interest so decided to buy in spite of recent price volatility.
The company had recently developed new wells and a higher price target had been set. Markets can be contrarian to such announcements initially and in future I should perhaps allow a few days to pass.
I would have bough this at £1.12 and had to sell out at £1.09 so would have recorded a loss of £194 based on my trading stake. Not a good day :(
I noted increased buying interest so decided to buy in spite of recent price volatility.
The company had recently developed new wells and a higher price target had been set. Markets can be contrarian to such announcements initially and in future I should perhaps allow a few days to pass.
I would have bough this at £1.12 and had to sell out at £1.09 so would have recorded a loss of £194 based on my trading stake. Not a good day :(
This met a number of my criteria but not all.
I decided to watch this share. It transpires had I bought I would have made 40p per share! However there was nothing I saw that indicated to me I should buy so I am pleased that I shortlisted such a share but will need to study further to see if I overlooked any other buy signs.
I subsequently noted that price had gone up the previous day coupled with a drop in volume which is a sign that the buyers are edging the sellers.
I decided to watch this share. It transpires had I bought I would have made 40p per share! However there was nothing I saw that indicated to me I should buy so I am pleased that I shortlisted such a share but will need to study further to see if I overlooked any other buy signs.
I subsequently noted that price had gone up the previous day coupled with a drop in volume which is a sign that the buyers are edging the sellers.
