My Trading Diary tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008-08-08:/my_trading_diary//4 2008-11-04T21:22:16Z A record of all my stock selections, whether winning or losing, purchased or watched. Movable Type Publishing Platform 4.01 Global Industries Ltd, Kendle International, Canadian Solar tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.136 2008-11-04T13:30:01Z 2008-11-04T21:22:16Z Global Industries Ltd - meets criteria - 30.10.8 an historical low - price does not always range.  30.10 was also the result of a price plummet so there could now be a process of retracing that. Buy up to $3.10... Stuart Global Industries Ltd - meets criteria - 30.10.8 an historical low - price does not always range.  30.10 was also the result of a price plummet so there could now be a process of retracing that. Buy up to $3.10 but look for opportunities to buy lower.  Bought and stop lossed out.  Lost £100.  Price subsequently rose and made my PR within the hour!  Did I enter my SL based on support?  I also bought above my PR - this occurred due to unreliable blog connection.  Will look for alternative ways of logging my trades.  Price rose all day but because started above my PR I did not participate.  Pleased at least I predicted two out of three the issue is entry and exits.

Kendle International - meets criteria - trading at all time lows.  Buy up to $21.40.  Bit trap-door currently with spread.  Bought twice and lost twice - my losing trend continues - one which relates to the NASDAQ.  It may have certain advantages over LSE but if I cannot read it I will not prevail with it.

Canadian Solar - appeared to be trading before the bell - to do with time-zone?!  Gapped up.  All of my PR gone - ignore.
]]> Super Micro Computers, ParkerVision, Security Bank, Kforce tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.135 2008-10-31T11:28:54Z 2008-10-31T20:22:16Z Super Micro Computers - meets most criteria - recent all time price low - and crossing of stochastic. Underbought and undervlaued.  Can range on the day.  One reservation is that yesterday's high was above the high of the previous three... Stuart Super Micro Computers - meets most criteria - recent all time price low - and crossing of stochastic. Underbought and undervlaued.  Can range on the day.  One reservation is that yesterday's high was above the high of the previous three days high.  Also gapped up overnight and not retrace so due a reversal?...Buy up to $6.40 - could this be like yesterday where I missed the boat and price continues to rise?  Watch and learn!  Bought and lost - again stop loss triggered - I think too tight and will vary now based on recent volatility.  

ParkerVision - share tends to move more sedately but PR's are there.  Buy up to $4.  Ended at $5 - 25% - I would have made £1750!  At least I can pick them :)

Security Bank - meets criteria - can range - volatile too  Buy up to $2.45.  This share plunged to $1.80 - had I chosen this my stop loss might not have been filled at the level stated and I could have been left holding a share that lost 25% of its value and cost me on a £7K trade £1.75K.  Should I trade smaller amounts.  Would generate more commission costs though not more PR as it would be shared around - in fact smaller PR requirement.  Will add this to my Task list for further thought.  Bought at £2.07 but took no account of wide spread which is likely to trigger my stop-loss.  Third loss of the day.  Very poor.

Kforce - meets criteria.  Buy up to $7.70 above yesterdays closing as feel this share as legs.  First choice.  Bought at 7.71 and almost immediately triggered stop loss - admittedly very tight.

Three of my four shares have risen which vindicates my predictions but I did not capitalize on any due to all having more sellers than buyers in the order book.  This gives me serious reservations about the usefulness of access to the order book.  Suggests some orders may be spoof to put off buyers and other way about.  If price continues to rise in face of sell pressure then ignore it?  But then how to know when to get out?  End up just following the price!  Less likely to be spoof nearer the touching price as would get hit.  I may test this out.

Stop losses though I want to reduce them this does increase incidence of them - I think they should be tight but flexible - a share that is more volatile should have a wider stop loss, less volatile can have tighter.  Will implement this.

My worst ever day trading - lost about £370.  Nevertheless due to misleading Feed - had I gone by price I could have made over £1000.  Need to revisit use of Feeds - it could be this particular feed or feeds in general.

Perhaps I will work without feeds too - in terms of entry can always make that based on price - stop losses will be in place - and in terms of profitable exits mental trailing stops.
]]> Insight Enterprises, DSP Group, Rent-A-Center tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.134 2008-10-30T12:01:48Z 2008-10-30T20:54:44Z Insight Enterprises - meets criteria, trading at historical lows.  Price has tended to rise recently rather than undulate.  Would buy up to $9.10 - close to end of day price but price was trending through it. 3Q earnings due 6.11.... Stuart Insight Enterprises - meets criteria, trading at historical lows.  Price has tended to rise recently rather than undulate.  Would buy up to $9.10 - close to end of day price but price was trending through it. 3Q earnings due 6.11.  Bought at $9.10.  Stop loss triggered.  Bought again at $8.67 and made good the loss plus a small profit.

DSP Group - another share trading close to historical lows.  Usually scopes across the day.  Buy up to $5.50.  Not much action in the queue - is this due to the feed I am now using?  Q3 report released today which beats estimates. Should make this bullish but might need to be in at the bell for that?  Learning!  Another forecaster expressed negative sentiment towards their future.  Price has currently gone beyond my price range.  Vindication but means I have missed the boat?  Could reverse. Price continued on towards 25% increase!  Though I missed out on this I could still have made my PR at any time subsequent - but was that the benefit of hindsight or should I have paid more attention to the buy sell dynamics?  Just because I missed a buy level does not mean the price may not go even higher - does not mean it will either but can watch buy sell pressure to gauge this.

Both these shares finished the day about 5% up.

Rent-A-Center - another share trading at historical lows.  Ended up 10% yesterday.  Seems seriously undervalued.  If retraces many dollars to be made!  Price doesn't always scope but due to huge scope down it may continue to scope until returned to usual trading levels.  Disappointing Q4 forecasts have contributed to this fall.  Buy up to $14.  Directionless most of the day but did trend up in the afternoon - could have realized my PR.  Lesson is not to dismiss a directionless share in the morning - if it continues like this in the afternoon then remove from watchlist.

Currently experimenting with a tighter stop loss to increase risk-reward ratio - at current settings 1 profit would equal 3 stop losses which is very good but obviously not if they keep getting triggered reducing the amount of profit stocks.  Noise for example could impact at this level.  Will test it though.  Can adjust accordingly.  Another option is a 1:2.  First one got hit quickly!

Future will look to additional shares if shortlisted ones move against me.  May also assess whilst market in place to target shares that meet my requirements and continuing it into the trading day.

Two shares I chose realized my PR requirement - one though in a way I was not able to capitalise on, another I need to pay more sustained attention to into the afternoon yet the one that did not was the one I bought.  I need to think further about my final trigger decisions.  The buy and sell pressure itself is not entirely reliable - or is it?! - do I need to read it better or is it more about working with pre-identified buy levels and only making the final decision when the buy pressure is significantly ahead of the sell pressure?  But I have just indicated that is unreliable - is it unreliable though? - I need to assess this more critically.
]]> Citizens First Bancorp Inc, Cleveland Biolabs, Steven Madden tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.133 2008-10-29T16:29:51Z 2008-10-29T23:19:47Z Citizens First Bancorp - Share finished down on the day but did reach a high above the previous day high.  I would have considered £3.20 a possible buy point.  And based on that I would not have bought because the price... Stuart Citizens First Bancorp - Share finished down on the day but did reach a high above the previous day high.  I would have considered £3.20 a possible buy point.  And based on that I would not have bought because the price continued its rise then steadied and dramatically dropped in the closing 30 minutes.  Difficulties following this though due to no access to Level II data and Intraday charts proving unreliable.

Cleveland BioLabs - last two days share has ranged - not always a characteristic.  Crossed back the stochastic. 28.10 price rose all day.  Buy up to £3.20.  Price dropped back to £3.00 as of 12.41 US time.  A spread of 44 cents!  Would need to pay 3.44 to guarantee sale and that is above price range. Watch for learning.  Also after $3.00 next bid is $2.84 - is this an aspect of this particular share, of NASDAQ or Total View?  Liquidity is low - no transactions in over an hour.  Spread is now increasing.  How (un)manageable are wide spreads?  Buy and sell is about equal currently.  A buy order at  $2.84 could drop the price - buy opportunity at that level?  News item implying share price irregular and may be removed to a lower market listing!  Would have taken 3% but price movement and volume offputting.  The price increase yesterday was 56% (!) so less likely to have legs for the following day.  Better to ignore share in that range.  What range then?  Trial and error.   Will choose those with 10% yields and adjust by experience.

Steven Madden - meets criteria and price has been resolutely upward!  Even buying later in the day would have met my PR. However I am making no purchases today as missed most of trading day due to feed access issues. Would I have bought at the level though - had I opted for a lower price entry I would not have made the trade because it has trended above it.  With this trade though I could also say because it's price increase as been upward with no significant undulation I would have bought up to $19.50 and thus entered at $19.25 requiring £19.75 to meet PR.  Price is now at $20.50 :)  However I am not going to add this to my watch account because the day's price could have influenced my buying decision level.  Buy price at $20.15 - with a mental trailing stop I could have got out about $21.50 and made nearly 7% or £490 :)

]]> Citizens First Bancorp Inc tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.132 2008-10-28T11:58:26Z 2008-10-29T18:33:12Z Citizens First Bancorp Inc - my first US share so I need to be mindful of different dynamics and my lesser knowledge of US companies compared with UK companies.  Share is under-bought but there is downside as well as upside... Stuart Citizens First Bancorp Inc - my first US share so I need to be mindful of different dynamics and my lesser knowledge of US companies compared with UK companies.  Share is under-bought but there is downside as well as upside on current prices.  Buy up to £3.20?  Won't make any decision until/unless I have access to a US Level II feed.  Not able to complete process due to provided feed not fully displaying data.]]> Euromoney Institutional Investor tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.131 2008-10-27T11:56:27Z 2008-10-27T14:21:27Z Stuart Learning from Profits and Losses tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.130 2008-10-25T21:03:58Z 2008-10-25T21:08:25Z On one level profits vindicate analysis and losses are to be expected.  Nevertheless learning from both to improve future stock selections makes obvious sense.  Are there any common characteristics about winning trades?  Of the losing trades was there anything that could have been avoided...for example a... Stuart On one level profits vindicate analysis and losses are to be expected.  Nevertheless learning from both to improve future stock selections makes obvious sense.  Are there any common characteristics about winning trades?  Of the losing trades was there anything that could have been avoided...for example a few of my recent losses were buying above my buy range - basic mistake. Once a buy decision has been made I must stick to it.  Though also I need to improve buy levels - so that they generate the most profit - the lower they are the better the profits...but equally if set too low could end up below the low of the next trading day if overnight upward pressure.   Electra Private Equity, Legal & General, Euromoney Institutional Investor tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.129 2008-10-23T17:41:26Z 2008-10-24T15:36:09Z Electra Private Equity - historical price low 22.10, stochastic followed and price rise today 23.10.  Price can be quite stable over a day but since its sell off price more range.   Steady climb today.  No recent gapping.  Could it... Stuart Electra Private Equity - historical price low 22.10, stochastic followed and price rise today 23.10.  Price can be quite stable over a day but since its sell off price more range.   Steady climb today.  No recent gapping.  Could it continue that climb tomorrow?  All buyers in the queue, not a single seller!  Closing price was £9.90 whereas prices prior were up to £9.60.  At £9.90 not convinced this share has much legs left at this time.  Seems buyers are willing to increase their offers to attract sellers.  Will watch for learning.  If buy only up to £9.70.  Equity Investment Instruments.

Legal & General - the share I lost £170 on Wednesday on!  Crossed a stochastic today.  Made steady progress this afternoon having plunged in the morning.  Loss before was because I bought too high.  If buy here up to 68p.  Some big buyers in mid-sixties, no sellers after mid-seventies.  Share price tends to move slowly.

Euromoney Institutional Investor - another share trading at all time lows.  Stochastic today though lower down -upward movement, reverse may still be a few days away.  Movement over a day can be small but last three have seen greater movement due to selling, buying to counter this could also scope.  No sellers in the queue and buyers up to £2.39.  Buy up to £2.44.  Media.  Bought at about £2.30 - very little volume.  Will hold over weekend as only open position.  Price closed at £2.30 with no buyers in the queue.
]]> Legal & General, Bellway, The Restaurant Group tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.128 2008-10-22T07:02:28Z 2008-10-22T20:28:01Z Stuart Legal & General - early morning auction fascinating.  Also gone on beyond 8.00am and I thought that was market-start...noted many bids over yesterdays end of day price and many offers under it! See how that plays out!  Noted on Intraday feeds for each of last 4 days for L&G the first 30 minutes seen huge price movements yet don't appear to be able to participate in this...now open at 8.05am.  Bought.  Took a loss of £170 on this share.  Perhaps I should have stuck to my original rather than revised price point - had I done that I would not have bought this share today and avoided the loss - but that is also the benefit of hindsight.  Need to analyse why.

Bellway - bought and sold- made my 6% requirement in about 30 minutes! Can take smaller profits in other stocks now.

Bovis - made the PR but I missed the boat - needed to have bought before 9.00am - however I did not see a buy signal.  Price did return below my buy level but decided due to lack of time in trading day may not make good - though could make 1.5% PR. Will watch end prices for learning though.

The Restaurant Group - bought at £1.15 above my buy price but only because I had thought that was too cautious and also because not requiring full PR.  Sold at profit!  Nearly the full PR too but a quick spate of sellers caused me to hit the sell button at the highest ask.  £440 profit including Bellway.  Still have L&G to close off which looks like a loss - wait or cut the loss.  Might even purchase Bovis late as price as dropped into my buy range.

Having made my 6% PR perhaps I should not have bothered making smaller PR's on the remaining shares.  My thinking is that the share I chose was the one most likely too and the others despite the same averaging effects as waiting for the next day is perhaps less likely to achieve PR because a second or third choice - better to wait for the next day's first choice?  Something to monitor.  Certain would reduce commission and stamp duty costs.

Are the market-makers price positions akin to a support and resistance?  They have more information than we and presumably will take realistic buy and sell positions?

Holding positions overnight - would a stop-loss protect a gap down?  Google.  Thinking about this for L&G - particularly as I am likely to close out the other two positions for a profit.  A stop-loss does not protect against a price being marked-down overnight or a free-fall situation where there are no buyers only sellers.  How often does that happen though?  More likely for smaller companies.  L&G are not going to be short of buyers!  But L&G could suffer from a price mark-down overnight.

Still made £260 overall - due to three profits covering one loss.
]]> Bellway, The Restaurant Group, Legal & General Group, Bovis Homes tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.127 2008-10-21T21:08:50Z 2008-10-21T22:08:33Z Bellway - crossed a stochastic but been doing that a lot recently.  Near historic lows.  Does tend to trade solidly either up or down over the course of a day.  Buy pressure in queue.  Buy up to £4.50.  Household Goods.The... Stuart Bellway - crossed a stochastic but been doing that a lot recently.  Near historic lows.  Does tend to trade solidly either up or down over the course of a day.  Buy pressure in queue.  Buy up to £4.50.  Household Goods.

The Restaurant Group - all time low price recently, recent stochastic.  Buy/sell pressure even.  Buy up to £1.12.  (Too cautious?).  Travel & Leisure.

Legal & General Group - another all time low price.  Stochastic cross.  Can gap overnight.  Buy pressure in queue - sells are not realistic.  Could be an early morning surge if no overnight upward price movement.  Buy up to 68p - again too cautious?  Price has passed point at which I could buy.  Wait for it to fall?  With no immediate sellers offers will go up but will there be takers - how many people have shares to sell at this level that would make profit?  Based on recent levels will buy up to 75p.  Life Insurance.

Bovis Homes - all time low 20.10.  Stochastic crossed and scopes on the day.  Buy up to £3.10.  First choice.  Household Goods.
]]> Prudential, John Wood Group, Charter tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.126 2008-10-21T09:46:43Z 2008-10-21T20:59:10Z Prudential - did not gap overnight and price remains within my range - currently sell pressure though.  Bought and rose quickly but then equally fell again quickly - decided to pocket my profits as not taken any so far this... Stuart Prudential - did not gap overnight and price remains within my range - currently sell pressure though.  Bought and rose quickly but then equally fell again quickly - decided to pocket my profits as not taken any so far this week!  I was only about .5% off my PR.  Price actually turned around slightly but think it is better to take some profit then wait for such a chance and risk losing more/all profits.

John Wood Group - gapped overnight realizing my PR.  Passed my buy-point.  Buy was up to £2.20 and now £2.40.  Still possible - watch.  Currently sell pressure.

Charter - made 10% in first hour.  An argument for being up at the bell?  Now at £4.10 above my buy price of £3.80. MIssed the boat?  Still buy pressure though.  Still following its upward trend though but may have it its ceiling at this price level more attractive to sellers.  Even here though it is below historical lows.  Continue to watch.  Also in terms of my minimum requirements only now need one third PR.  Price slumped and stopped out.  Had I bought at the opening I could have made up to 14%!  I need to give myself the first few hours of the trading day to give myself more opportunities.  For the first time I re-bought a share the same day and made the reduced make-good PR!  Meant that I am £18 up on the day - better than being down!

This is my first loss on the day since 1.10 which is pretty excellent if I say so myself and should not give myself too much cause for alarm at this stage.  Because of a subsequent re-buy and re-sell of Charter I have changed a loss into a neutral :)

Nevertheless I paid the price literally for buying over my set level.  And I had an opportunity to buy under my set level early in the morning which had I taken I would have paid myself for the week.  Live and learn :)
]]> Prudential, John Wood Group, Charter tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.125 2008-10-20T20:41:44Z 2008-10-20T21:12:23Z Prudential - some fundamentals bounce but also like the TA too.  17.10.8 was also a price low - quite a lot of that at the moment.   Very rangey so PR potential - also crossed a stochastic and already the... Stuart Prudential - some fundamentals bounce but also like the TA too.  17.10.8 was also a price low - quite a lot of that at the moment.   Very rangey so PR potential - also crossed a stochastic and already the biggest price riser 20.10!  Huge buy pressure in queue too - most sells can be discounted too as from previous higher times.  Difficult to judge buy upper limit even at £3.40 PR quite achievable.  Closing price today was distorted by lack of sellers - buy price otherwise at £3.20.  I anticipate buying of this stock overnight and price gapped up to £3.60.  Would usually cause me to back off but feel this share has more miles to run.  Life Insurance sector.

John Wood Group - all time low 17.10.8.  Stochastic crossed.  Rangey last 5 days. Price can be quite sedate then rise sharply - but also decline as fast!  Buy pressure in queue.  Buy up to £2.20.  Oil equipment and services sector.

Charter - another share all time low 17.10.8!  Usually not much scope intraday but there is currently as it seems to be making good its price loss in steady fashion.  Price trended up most of last two trading days and plenty in queue waiting to buy.  Buy up to £3.80.  Industrial engineering sector.
]]> PV Crystalox Solar tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.124 2008-10-20T08:58:57Z 2008-10-20T15:46:10Z Price gapped over night (weekend) by 10p.  Planning to buy up to £1.20's and now in £1.30's.  So my PR was achieved but not in a way that I can participate in.  Watch to see if price is retraced.  Would... Stuart
Price declined a bit but overall rose and would have realized a second PR opportunity.  Noted price remained steady or rose despite mainly sell pressure.  I wonder if this is an indicator of off-book activity?  Could be a buy opportunity - if price rises despite sell pressure...coupled with how market-makers position their buy and sell prices.
]]> PV Crystalox Solar, QinetiQ Group tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.123 2008-10-18T20:43:09Z 2008-10-19T16:50:21Z PV Crystalox Solar - meets all criteria.  Can gap overnight.  Crossed stochastic a number of times recently. Trading at historical lows.  Only a few months ago it was trading at historical highs!  Pressure in queue toward buy.  Queue could push... Stuart PV Crystalox Solar - meets all criteria.  Can gap overnight.  Crossed stochastic a number of times recently. Trading at historical lows.  Only a few months ago it was trading at historical highs!  Pressure in queue toward buy.  Queue could push price up early and then price falls over course of day.  Could wait till that calms down and see if returns to my price point - could try and get on the price early on but get stopped out quickly.  Don't rate my ability to read the opening of markets.  Will watch to learn.  Buy up to mid 120's.

QinetiQ Group - an interesting stock for me as price seems to zigzag often - certainly for the last week- and a number of those up swings present PR opportunities.  Difficult to read which blue signals are PR and which are temporary blip.  Not if choose a buy point?  Another share 16.10 reached its historical low.  Share gapped up twice overnight in last week.  Buy up to £1.66.  Meets criteria but is volatile.  Is price retracing overnight gaps or is price too oversold now for that to be realized?  Might be one I should paper-trade?  It is different when you realize it is real money - surprise, surprise!  Just follow my rules as I have been doing to date - of course I will continue to pick some losers and others that go nowhere.

This share was picked by mistake because I was looking at an alphabetical list!  Ignore.
]]> UNITE Group tag:www.stuartdrunsfield.com,2008:/my_trading_diary//4.122 2008-10-17T10:16:16Z 2008-10-17T17:14:26Z Unite Group - price gapped up overnight beyond my price level to mid 180's.  Those gains have now been retraced and price back to my buy level.  However sell pressure in queue.  Watch.  Share continues to be sold off back... Stuart Unite Group - price gapped up overnight beyond my price level to mid 180's.  Those gains have now been retraced and price back to my buy level.  However sell pressure in queue.  Watch.  Share continues to be sold off back it seems to its levels of yesterday which had been high 150's to low 160's.  So it seems the gap has been taken where I lost my PR opportunity and now it is be reversed.  Will not buy but continue to watch for learning.

In last hour would have made the PR and did note the opportunity however would not have made because of not likely to recover within the remaining time - as it happens it did but only just.  I could have bought it with the idea of holding it to early next week as space for this open position.  To think further about situations like this.
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