Stuart: September 2008 Archives

Xstrata - under-performing - likely due to uncertainties around takeover of Lonmin.  This looks now as if it could go ahead with a decision needed by 2.10. Share under bought.  Today price went up despite less interest than previous day - suggests increasing buyer interest.

Columbia Banking System - due to pending decisions regarding US Fed bank bailout and cooling toward it in general do not expect a rally and so do not expect this share to make 3% required.  Not even sure it will rise due to downward pressure on Banking stocks today following further takeovers in the US, UK and Europe.

Columbia Banking System inc - is under-bought, volumes declined today and price increased.  Clearly in a volatile sector - there could be a rally Monday if 'bailout' this weekend finalised by the US Congress.  But even if not and more uncertainty there is upside in this share.  Some concern though that my percentage requirement would take share beyond most recent price levels.  Only buy depending on weekend news-stories.

Mondi - this is a South African stock!  Perhaps I should consider investment in that market :)

Anglo Pacific Group - closed yesterday at £1.585 and today opened at £1.545 - as I was prepared to buy up to £1.60 I bought here as potential for greater profit realised.  However why did it open down - result of share buying yesterday after close and market-maker manipulation?  And since then share has remained static for rest of today.  However noted in previous two days most activity occurs in the afternoon - not sure why!

Made up to £1.58 on an Intra-day spike and would have settled out for £1.55 making about £100.  The Google Financials indicated both an High and Low not available on the chart which makes it an unreliable source.

This stock today did not make my 3% so although a profit it was an incorrect prediction.  Also had I not watched the share I would have had to sell up at day end of loss.  Though after having bought a share I won't then watch it I do need to watch for opening making purchase around 10am and at end to get out of the share - sometimes this will help me to take some profit even if not the 3% required today - it still covered broker costs and made a reasonable profit.  Until I actually do it I don't know about slippage effect.  Next time I will watch Intraday to give me experience of doing this.  Google Financials not reliable and 15 mins delayed - do I need to upgrade my Sharescope package?

Mondi - meets criteria and also note for last 10 or so days its high and low prices have bounced up and down hugely which means 3% is so much more achievable irrespective of its closing price.  Another set of shares to look out for therefore.  Would need 3.14 to achieve 3% and this price has been achieved for last 10 days or so at some point during each day.  Buy up to 3.07.

Laura Ashley - meets all criteria and with good fundamentals - at least in terms of reported profits.  However its UK retail trade is declining over the year.

Melrose PLC - price dropped so one score against Chaikin!  Though need to test it more than once obviously.

Dragon Oil PLC - closed down a penny.  Opened £2.35 but after opening fun and games bought in at £2.25 but closed out at £2.24 - did reach £2.30 briefly.  Even had I realised that I would not have realised my percentage requirement.  This share satisfied all my criteria but my prediction was wrong - this could be the 30% that tend to be anyway or it could mean I need to further refine my criteria.  I will continue with my current criteria but make use too of Chaikin.  Clearly at this stage I cannot give up on a criteria based on one loss.  Nevertheless when I have made a profit they have not been great and further refinement is needed.  

Petrofac Ltd - sold for profit £75.48 - a profit I could live on but only because of the cost of the share as in percentage terms did not make 3% would have needed to have reached £6.20 where high was £6.15.

Currently I focus on technical analysis based on various criteria - I could adjust this to first go with fundamentals such as a particular sector then apply the analysis?  Against that the best gains will sometimes be found in a bearish sector.  To give further thought too.

Petrofac- fundamentals are good too and it is under-performing (under-valued) in its sector.  Will now though not paper-trade buy previous night due to both over-night price change possibilities from US and Asian stock-markets and also early-morning 'spread-flush' - will make my purchases later in morning - not sure what I consider best time yet but as a starting point will go for 10am.  Would rather make no trade at all in a day then rush a trade that stop-losses me out with loss of capital and various broker fees.  Does though suggest I should make several trades each day rather than just the one.  Also to reduce the effects of when I buy a stock which I cannot sell as then reduces the amount of capital I have in any one stock.

Cluff Gold plc - Sell - stock finished down on the day despite rallies elsewhere!  However it rose over the day but also fell the previous night - I would have then purchased at this lowest price and would have made £365.80 a more than satisfactory amount for a day's trading.  However with the overnight loss would I have gone ahead with the purchase?

Currently I am giving focus to technical analysis on a day by day basis but how much weight should I give to changing fundamentals?

Cluff Gold PLC - buy - a flight into safety and Gold following drop in confidence in US dollar and US financial stocks, coupled with share being under-bought and under-valued.

It will be instructive one way or other the price movement of this share on September 19th!

Noted Bollinger Curve widening so price is volatile currently - I should have factored this in first as if price drops that would be one possible reason why whereas if goes up then I have a measure of good fortune and I don't want to be buying stocks based on 'taking a punt'.

International Ferro Metals Ltd - looked like a buy with undersold, undervalued stock - with full year results due showing good growth yet the price fell another 0.25p and I would have been stop lossed out with another day of no profit.

Does this show skepticism about the forecast good results - if results are as good as predicted will there then be an upward trend?